UK House Price Index
+8.3% Current UK house price growth
1.3m Projected sales volumes in 2022 +5%
Projected house price inflation by end 2022
• Market activity resilient in the face of economic headwinds
• One-off pandemic impacts have continued to support the desire to move, and sales volumes in H1 which are 10% down on last year.
• Total sales set to exceed our original projections – we expect 1.3m sales completions in 2022, 100,000 higher than forecast.
• More activity means the rate of price growth will not slow as fast as we expected, even if there were sharp drop in demand.
• We expect house prices to end the year 5% higher over 2022.
• The market is not immune from higher borrowing costs. Levels of activity will slow faster over Q3 and into Q4. The scale of the slowdown will depend upon how high mortgage rates rise.
Around the country, prices are rising fastest in Wales (+11.1%) and remain in double digits in the South West and East Midlands. London continues to lag well behind with average prices up 4% over the last year.
All markets are registering slower growth off a high base. The rate of price increases remains well ahead of the 5-year average. We expect the rate of growth to slow over the second half of the year, but not as fast as we had projected at the end of last year due to the continued resilience in sales and buyer interest.
Annual % change in house price
Nottingham are showing the highest percent increase at + 10.7%, compared to the UK average of + 8.3%. This is a significant increase that will be unlikely to continue.
Those thinking of offloading some of their portfolio or downsizing may want to seriously consider the current house price trend. Whilst some growth is still projected, it is likely to be at a lower rate than we are currently seeing, ending at a projected +5% as a whole.